Virgo Kent's NBA Preview (Welcome to the NBA NWO)

I may be excited for the NBA season to start Sunday but I have far less patience for the business of the game. I don’t care for owners who only see losing profits instead of seeing their role in it or trusting their basketball people to do their part. I don’t care for poor GM’s who can’t evaluate talent and chemistry and contribute to players wanting to go elsewhere.

I don’t care for David Stern threatening to ruin the game I love with his power trip. I don’t care about people mad at players realizing the power that we gave them and fulfilling Curt Flood’s dream to be agents of change instead of being happy to play and make money.

I want to get back to discussing basketball but it feels like after seeing what this lockout is about it feels secondary. I’m gonna try to anyway despite every time I think of David Stern or see the LA Clippers, I know we are watching a league that should be enjoying a great 2010-11 campaign but comes back after a drama summer.

Stern used to be the best commissioner in sports but like all great men of power, they get delusional the longer they hold it. When they get threatened by something powerful (in Stern’s case, the Malice at the Palace), they start overreacting to keep that power. Richard III did it, Tony Montana and Michael Corleone too. So did Adolf Hitler and other leaders.

It started with the dress code. Then it led to curbing everyone’s enthusiasm after being fouled with handing out technical fouls for the slightest anger instead of just far worse whiners. Now it came to being a bully in the lockout proceedings ("I know where the bodies are buried?"), something Bryant Gumbel took a justified step further.

With the aid of the owners, he held the league hostage in this lockout without addressing the main concerns. Yes, the players gave $3 billion back but how does that make the league better? When guys are still getting crazy, overpaid deals? When a luxury tax only hints at what could be possible with revenue sharing? So he and the owners bullied the players into a deal knowing that the fans would ultimately hate them if they didn’t.

This was all about restoring power, not fairness or competitive balance*. Nowhere was this more evident than Chris Paul being arranged to go (NOT traded) to the Clippers, instead of to the Lakers in a 3-team deal. Instead of respecting a great GM who made his team better and weakened a Western power despite giving them Paul, the owners whined and Stern acting as co-owner of a team killed the trade for “basketball reasons”. That’s the power move of a desperate man who isn’t thinking clear.

*(By the way, the league hasn't had competitive balance in 31 years. Look how many teams have won NBA titles since 1980. The NBA is the only league where half of the teams makes the playoffs. Factor in 3-5 teams that just finish outside and that's 19-21 teams out of 30 who are in playoff contention. By definition, those teams are competitive.)

The Hornets got a younger package from the Clippers (and guys who looked like they were not happy to be there.) The Rockets, who thought they were getting Pau Gasol, look worse. The Lakers looked lost and flustered for the first time in seven years and gave Lamar Odom away for less than they got Gasol for. The Clippers got way more exciting and got their biggest free agent in years.

If this was a genuine move, it’d be earthshaking in its own right. But the earthquake feels artificial. Instead of nature doing her thing, it’s a man made quake that could have seismic consequences on the rest of the league, its perception and a lot of other shady instances in league history.

The Decision last year was the creation of the NWO in the WWE. The Chris Paul trade being killed was the Montreal Screwjob that made WWE Chairman Vince McMahon go from owner to power player screwing with the system. One was pivotal but ultimately more beneficial for the league despite people mad at LeBron and Chris Bosh. The other was also pivotal but deeper consequences within the league that are dangerous.

Hate these guys if you will, but David Stern did far more damage to the league than they did.

All that matters now is that the powers that be have showed their hand and I’m worried what more foolishness could transpire next. David Stern and the owners have long been the Hidden Hand behind the scenes overseeing this league but now that a new world order is in effect, this could threaten what we see and love if you care about the NBA.

But this isn’t all doom and gloom. Here’s some quick hit storylines I’m watching.

1.  Will the Heat win this year? I don’t see why they aren’t the favorites. The team that lost last year got better with Shane Battier but all eyes will be on Dwyane Wade's health and if LeBron James will play angry with a lil more developed game in the post/midrange.

2.  Can Dallas repeat? I think they’ll get back to the Western Conference Finals. With Lamar Odom and a crazy X-factor in Vince Carter, they might just be another Green Bay in terms of sneaky defending champions.

3. Can Memphis sustain its great run? I've seen Portland rise and fall. Memphis looks like a team that caught fire but I have no clue what will happen the year after. The great mystery of the West.

4. The last hurrah for the Lakers/Celtics/Spurs. Last postseason was the changing of a guard in the league. This will be the last chance for this teams to remain elite and I think the Spurs have the best mix of youth to stay around.

5. Kevin Durant finally wins MVP? Maybe this depends on Russell Westbrook and how he handled his postseason. But Durant showed why he’s the most unstoppable offensive force in the league and I think this year he gets even better.

Oh yeah, can somebody explain to me how Kendrick Perkins got on the Buddy Love diet?

6. Lob City? Chris Paul trade hate aside, the Clippers are exciting for the first time in 10 years. Time will tell if they are as good as they were 5 years ago or if Donald Sterling will interfere with this run of good like he always does.

7. Kobe’s last hurrah. I said this summer that nobody has been an All-NBA selection after their 15^th season except for Shaq and Kareem. Prior to 2 weeks ago, Kobe looked as healthy as he’s been in years. But after that wrist injury and his divorce, there’s no telling how he’ll play this year and it’s pivotal because it could be his last as the KB that we know.

8. Rip Hamilton might be the best signing of the summer. Shane Battier to the Heat could compete with this but if Hamilton has anything left, he gives Derrick Rose another weapon with postseason experience. I like this for Chicago, who I think is still the No. 2 team in the East.

9. Will Golden State finally reach the postseason? Mark Jackson is my early pick for Coach of the Year if the Warriors get there. It’s about time Monta Ellis, Steph Curry and that high risk, high reward lineup makes good on their promise and mature into a formidable team.

10. Dwight Howard? This is going to be annoying and this offseason annoyed me on it. My prediction is he plays most of the season in Orlando. He's either going to New Jersey or the Lakers but watching Chairman Stern find a way to meddle in this too.

11. Which rookie will impress the most? Another weak draft class at first but I’m interested in the Cali kids I covered who are in the league (Darius Morris, Derrick Williams, Jordan Hamilton, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Tyler Honeycutt). Curious to see what Kemba Walker does in Charlotte? How quick Jimmer Fredette gets humbled. Kyrie Irving’s growth in Cleveland. 

Why the Clippers can't win for losing

The top pick in the NBA lottery is like a 10-year comet that comes one year too late for the Clippers. In 1988, they drafted Danny Manning when David Robinson was drafted a year earlier. Same thing happened in 1998 when they drafted Michael Olowokandi one year after Tim Duncan. Now we’re gonna see how they screw this up with the slam-dunk No. 1 choice of Blake Griffin, the consensus Player of the Year and everybody's All-American (no Frank Deford)

I loved the headline that the LA Times Sports Blog had “Blake Griffin Loses Lottery.” He’s probably going to a team that is loaded upfront (Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby), including a guy who plays his position (Zach Randolph). He’ll be cursed to join a team with an owner who has no basketball sense and only cares about making money. And best of all, he gets to do it on a team that has almost no history of drafting great players that stick around (good luck, Eric Gordon)

Let’s face it, the Clippers would have been screwed had they won the No. 2 pick. Ricky Rubio would’ve joined Baron Davis, Mike Taylor and Eric Gordon. Rubio-Gordon would’ve been a solid backcourt for years to come but at the expense of Davis being relegated to the bench, it’s a pipe dream. Same with Hasseem Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Brandon Jennings, etc….I just don’t see anyone who’s a good fit. It's a team with too many parts - some good, some inconsistent but clustered all around.

I’ve been discussing the draft on Twitter and there’s no secret that the 2009 draft is loaded on potential but light on actual performance. Outside of Griffin and Rubio, nobody named among the lottery is really standing out a surefire pick. The one-and-dones (Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, BJ Mullens) are nowhere near the class of last year’s and are being drafted based on what did in high school almost more than college.

*And I'm saying that as somebody who said Holiday is the best all-around guard Cali has produced since Baron Davis and watched DeRozan throw down some sick dunks up close. Both are nice but both can get better, esp. DeRozan*

Haseem Thabeet is tall but I smell dunk bait. Jordan Hill is a better pro from the Pac-10 than James Harden? I’m a big Stephen Curry fan but he’s gotta bulk up before he can be the next Ben Gordon. Austin Daye is nice (saw him play in a HS All-Star game two years ago) but he’s gotta get his weight up to match his immense skills.

This is clearly a draft where you’d benefit leaving early because the competition is weak (a la Mark Sanchez). Teams in the 10’s-20’s are gonna be satisfied with the steals they get (Darren Collison, Earl Clark, Eric Maynor, Gerald Henderson, DeJuan Blair, James Johnson, Sam Young). Oh, and if you’re wondering how I feel about Tyler Hansborough – he’s a solid high teens-early 20’s pick because of his smarts, hustle and nose around the ball. But he needs a reliable jumper and more foot speed to survive.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some teams tried to trade down. But for the Clippers, there may be no hope because they’ll find a way to screw it up and somewhere, Blake Griffin is praying how to avoid becoming the next victim of the Clippers curse.

I’ve never done a mock draft and I won’t do one now. I’d rather analyze how players will do on the next level. So if you feel like speaking your mind, you know where to find me.