Dr. Madness, Ph.D. Speaks (March Madness 2013 Predictions)

In keeping with tradition, I sit from my chair as an associate professor of Bracketology 101 and make my predictions on this shaky NCAA Tournament.

Final 4 picks - Louisville, Miami, Michigan and the hated Gonzaga Bulldogs. It betrays my allegiance to my proud alma mater, the University of San Diego, but one of my rules of Bracketology is sometimes, biases and allegiances go out the door because winning your pool means more than showing love.

I'm going with Louisville to win it over Miami. Other notes. UCLA will advance to the 2nd round, as will Arizona and Cal. Bucknell and a way-too-low Oregon will reach the Sweet 16. Duke will lose to Michigan State in the Sweet 16. Kansas will be the 1st No. 1 seed to go down.

Speaking of which, it's been 5 years since the alma mater had our shining moment. Defeating UConn on a go-ahead shot and sending me into a frenzy in my house. Let's enjoy this one time.

John Calipari - The New Jerry Tarkanian/Jimmy Johnson

John Calipari is the new Jerry Tarkanian/Jimmy Johnson. Now that he’s won a title, he can take his place among the controversial and successful modern legends of college sports.

Jimmy Johnson (with a start from Howard Schnellenberger) revolutionized college football in the 1980’s with Miami by fully embracing a mostly Black, inner-city roster that won big, won often and talked trash while doing it for each other and their school. Jerry Tarkanian took Las Vegas’ rebellious, wild image and translated it on the court with high flying teams that won often, culminating with his classic 1989-1991 squad that won 45 in a row and the biggest win (margin of victory) in NCAA title history.

Both attracted their fair share of controversy during their prime. But history has been far kinder in retrospect since 1) Their guys graduated, 2) They won, 3) They influenced future generations and have honestly yet to be replicated. John Calipari is the same way.

I really didn’t want to like Calipari after 2008. He had the best team of the season in Memphis and arrogantly let FT woes doom one of the best teams I’ve seen in the last 5 years. The same thing happened with his first Kentucky class as John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Co. lost to an inferior West Va. Team. His freewheeling style only bothered me because his guys lacked the mental toughness in close games.

I didn’t care that he openly recruited one-and-dones. It was more like they’d be great but never championship caliber. Well he just turned that idea upside down. He built a young team that worked for a common goal. They dominated all comers and lost only twice – once on a late 3, another in a game they probably lost to get focused for the NCAA Tournament.

He maximized a system that has become the norm over the last 5 years - one and done kids. Instead of recruiting the best talent alone and hoping that mentally they’ll pan out, Calipari coached them up to be team first and shine in their gifts while helping each other.

Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Doron Lamb, Marquis Teague, Terrence Jones probably made a lot more money because not only did they impact games, they showed they can gel with teammates and play different roles that could prepare them for not starring right away in the NBA. That's all Calipari's genius.

Most coaches put up with one-and-dones as a necessary evil. Calipari courts them and maximizes his time while knowing it is limited. He embraces the new era and it’s led to success. It’s a lot of foresight and risk and while it’s not always clean – I still don’t trust Worldwide Wesley and all those connections – now I have to respect it.

Even better that they focus on the little things. Free throws, hustle plays, defense as well as wild offense.

It’s maturity in not just his players, but himself. He cares about the kids. He cares about them the same way Tark and Jimmy Johnson once did and he’ll go to bat for them in the press. Not a lot of coaches have that because they care about being in control and letting people know who’s in control without letting the kids be solo. There’s a way to balance control with letting players be them and the best coaches do that.

Tarkanian and Jimmy Johnson had great teams fall short. But they reloaded and refocused their teams while never changing their style. It was free reign with the right amount of discipline to have their guys focused on the main goal. They took national criticism and just kept winning. 

It's the same with Calipari. Gone is the old arrogance of letting talent win big and leave without a ring. If he continues to convince high talent to buy into his system – which produced some of the most promising young NBA talent over the last 5 years – he’ll be remembered as one of the finest and influential coaches of his era. 

He's the perfect coach for a new era that builds off 20 years of younger players making an impact. Kenny Anderson, Chris Jackson and the Fab 5 showed the future of freshmen/sophomores taking over. Stephon Marbury, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant and Greg Oden gave glimpses of it. John Calipari has taken that mantle and made it even more a rebelution – not just the players but a coach who see the future and have made it a reality.

Rebels never get their proper due in their time. But in 10 years, we may see Calipari differently and despite his controversy with 1996 UMass/2008 Memphis, he may finally be on a roll that could enhance his legacy and impact college basketball longterm.

March Madness 2012 - The Virgo's Bracket

Here's my Bracket - Let's get into the breakdown. 3 No. 1's and a No. 2 - we won't see a repeat of last year's screwiness with lower seeds upsetting teams that are clearly heads and shoulders better.

Forgot to add that I really like Florida State since they beat Duke-UNC twice. Let's enjoy the Madness!!!

Three Cheers and Trepidation with VCU

First off, a moment of silence for my bracket and the millions of others that went up in smoke this weekend....

(It was all good just a week ago)

Now slap me in the head for not trusting UConn since I've seen them all year. They demolished Kentucky in the Maui tournament and made those freshmen look downright average compared to John Wall and Co. last year. They've won nearly every big game they needed to win. Kemba Walker has run out of superlatives for his play while Jeremy Lamb is having his coming out party. Did I really think my Blue Devils were gonna beat them?

(By the way, Duke got the crap kicked out of them worse than any team in 20 years. Not since the 1990 title game when UNLV overwhelmed them physically, mentally, athletically. Hard to argue why Derrick Williams isn't the best Pac-10 prospect since James Harden)

Aside from praising UConn and John Calipari making his Final Four debut**, the fact that No. 11 seed VCU is in the Final Four is both a great story and a problem. It's great for Shaka Smart coaching his boys up and catching fire from the perimeter and for those of us who remember former guard Eric Maynor beating Duke in 2007. It's great because this is one of the greatest runs in March Madness history. 

Yet it's a problem. It's the 1st time that all 4 No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are gone before the Final Four. But like most folks, I didn't have much faith in the No. 1 seeds this year because while they were great, they weren't dominant teams and for the first time, I filled out my bracket with no clearcut idea who would win. 

The No. 2's were almost the same. UNC and Florida were great teams but they had their shortcomings. Notre Dame was overrated and San Diego State's great year fell victim to the UConn buzzsaw. 

There's reason for parity in college basketball. This year's freshman class was the weakest in 5 years besides Harrison Barnes and Jared Sullinger. Nearly all of this year's top players didn't look like exciting NBA talent. More upsets happened because teams just weren't that good and teams like Arizona, UConn and Kentucky came together at the right time. 

Butler's a great story, being the first mid-major to reach back-to-back Final Fours since UNLV in 1990 and 1991. VCU's even greater for this year. But it's also a byproduct of a weak season that inadvertently added to the March drama.

The bigger problem with VCU's success, though, is the folks who'll use this to justify expanding the tournament. They'll say that thanks to the First Four, teams can go on a miracle run in a similar way. Nevermind the fact that expanding the tournament is watering down the field even more in a watered down era of college basketball.

While some teams get screwed every year from the Big Dance, letting in more teams isn't the answer.  Expanding it to 96 teams gives the Selection Committee an out for their mistakes while bringing in more teams who have no business being there.

Case in point, the Big East had 11 teams in this year's tourney. How did that work out? The Pac-10 didn't deserve more than 3 teams (not counting USC in the First 4). Mid-major conference bids should be determined by how teams do outside of conference not just finishing top 3. 

Too much of anything is never good. Pretty soon, we're gonna be letting in every team that finishes .500 and while we may love the drama, the tournament will lose it's magic as folks will tune out average games while waiting for the better ones. 

VCU is gonna inadvertently give the powers that be more reason to want to recreate their success. Each win should be praised but it could be a case of backhanded praise if the NCAA meddles in this story. 

I'm still ready to enjoy this unlikeliest of Final Fours, but it's a strange case of wondering if this is all good or just a sign of the times. 

**Somehow I doubt Coach Cal is gonna get this trip removed from his resume like he did at Memphis and UMass. But the fact he did it without an All-American or much fanfare is impressive.

There Will Be Madness (Bracketology Fails, Little East and Upsets)

I've been watching March Madness for 16 years and this year's version is one of the wackiest since 2000 when 8 of the top 12 teams (2 No. 1's, 3 No. 2's, 3 No. 3's) were gone after the first weekend and we had two No. 8 seeds in the Final Four. Granted we still have 3 No. 1's and all the No. 2's but here's who's still dancing: No. 11 VCU, No. 11 Marquette, No. 10 Florida State, and No. 12 Richmond.

VCU, a First Four team or Florida State will be an Elite Eight team while higher seeds Notre Dame, Syracuse and Pitt will be watching this weekend's games at home. I'll bury the Big East later but think about that. Who honestly had half of those teams advance?

That's the beauty of March. The surprise stories as well as the expected ones which help you almost forget your bracket. I remember past years watching VCU beat Duke with Eric Maynor and nearly beat UCLA the following year. Florida State beat Duke earlier this year with physical play and Marquette hasn't gone this far since I saw Dwyane Wade mess around and get a triple double on Kentucky in 03.

Speaking of my bracket, it looks good if you only count the East and West brackets. I lost a total of three teams, including two Sweet 16 picks. But if you click below and look at the right side, it's got more red than those Red Asphalt tapes they made us watch in driver's ed.

More reason for me to hate the South. Terrible luck picking teams. My Southeast bracket on the bottom right has been shot, including my Final Four pick Pittsburgh. I'm in the bottom half of most of my pools because I took more gambles than I should've and didn't predict the ones that happened (except for being 3rd in one ESPN pool)

Which leads me to the Big East, the 2nd biggest story of the tournament.

11 Teams in, half are gone by the start of the "3rd round" (by the way, is this another casualty of the First Four? Hate it.) and four more to follow. The best conference in America? I sure didn't think so this year when I saw teams besides UConn and Pitt. Syracuse was overrated, Notre Dame was nice but not elite. If St. John's didn't lose their 2nd best player to an ACL injury, they would've been a Sweet 16 team.

Let's all point and laugh at this ineptitude of overhype and comeuppance. If not for Kemba Walker's brilliance and Steve Lavin's resurgence, that conference would be a bigger joke this year. Five of the nine lost by 8 or more points and you can't blame Louisville for losing by one. Pitt's loss will go down as one of the most heartbreaking and surreal 8 seconds I've ever seen.

Big East? More like the Little East. Glad we kicked out the children so the big boys can keep dancing.

- Morehead State's Kenny Faried earned himself a trip to the NBA Draft with his two stellar games this weekend. Amazing rebounder and defender who'll make some team proud.

- Texas/Arizona lived up to the hype of maybe the best 2nd round (excuse me, 3rd round) game besides San Diego State and Temple. The first few hours of the 1st round were probably some of the best excitement I've seen in years.

- UCLA, Michigan and St. John's will be Top 10 teams next year, assuming nobody leaves. I'm proud of my Bruins for hanging tough with Florida after nearly blowing a big lead to Michigan State. Michigan's got a backcourt to watch for 2 years with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Darius Morris. And St. John's is bringing in another Top-5 recruiting class.

- Kansas is still alive. Surprise, surprise. Not as surprising as Wisconsin

- I'm happy for several LA kids I covered showing up big in the tournament. Jordan Hamilton (Texas), Derrick Williams (Arizona), DJ Gay and Kawhi Leonard (San Diego State), Morris (Michigan), and Tyler Honeycutt (UCLA) all repped the City of Angels proud.

Week 2 of the Madness coming up Thursday. Already looking forward to previewing Duke vs. Arizona - rematch of one of my favorite teen memories. The 2001 National Title Game.

Let the Games Begin - March Madness!

Here's my picks. I almost never pick all No. 1's but this year is terribly tough. Picking Ohio State to win it because I can't trust Kansas. Time to start the MADNESS!!!!

Bracketology 101 - 2011 Edition (Opening Lecture)

Welcome to the Madness of March! As you take your seats in the lecture hall, feel free to grab a hold of your notebooks and pencils as I, Dr. Virgo Kent will present my thoughts on this year's bracket. And yes, I do hold a degree in bracketology from years of research and fandom. If you'll look at this wall, you'll notice my pick of Duke to reach the national title game last year, Memphis in 2008 and Florida winning in 2007. Let's begin shall we?

Quick caveat - no Final Four predictions until Wednesday. This is an opening lecture of my 1st impressions to help you and help me. So let's begin shall we?

- Duke got the roughest bracket. The West is loaded with Texas, Arizona, and Michigan just on Duke's side alone and then you have UConn and San Diego State in the other half. But it's fair because even though my Devils embarrassed UNC, we're a soft #1 seed. Shout out to Hampton being Duke's 1st doormat, the other HU.

- On that note, San Diego State and UConn potentially in the Sweet 16 could be one of the best matchups of the tourney. I'd say Kansas/Louisville but more on them later.

- My other squad got a nice lil matchup in Round 1. UCLA heads to Florida to face the great Tom Izzo and underachieving Michigan State. It'll be a nice showdown with my fellow Ph.D. bracketologist and die hard Spartan @MrESPN. Great game and maybe UCLA finally gets out of the 1st round for the 1st time in 3 years to see Florida for the first time since the 07 Final Four

- Tourney Expanded to 68 teams which means USC barely (but deservedly) snuck in. This is how the NCAA cons us into expansion: Add a few teams every few years and eventually we're gonna have 70+ teams in there. It's a slow racket that troubles me.

- Florida gets blown out by Kentucky in the SEC Title game but gets a No. 2 seed? Anybody care to explain that. UK gets a 4 despite beating Florida twice but yet the SEC is so down that Alabama won the SEC West and didn't get in. I'd be surprised if neither reached the Sweet 16. Fraud Alert!

- Speaking of frauds, Texas got exposed badly against Kansas in the Big 12 final. And their reward? They get   No. 13 seed Oakland who beat Tennessee and nearly beat Michigan State and Illinois early this year.

- St. John's got a great deal being that team nobody wants to see. They potentially got BYU in the 2nd round. UCLA fans know full well that St. John's head coach Steve Lavin made 5 Sweet 16's and knows how to win big games.

- More basic tips for your bracket. Trust teams with great guard play and coaches of high seeds with proven resumes. Which means watch Rick Pitino at Louisville.

- I think Kansas is a shaky No. 1. They can either win the whole thing on great talent and balance or lose early. I give em the Public Enemy treatment: "Cant Truss Em". Meanwhile Ohio State (the overall No. 1) and Pitt have the easiest brackets.

- Who's ready for Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and the NBA on TNT crew getting in March Madness? And throw in the always reliable Kevin Harlan and Gus Johnson along with Clark Kellogg + Jim Nantz. If only we could somehow get Dickie V on there.

There you have it folks. Feel free to come by my office hours and discuss what you think and don't forget to sign up for my Facebook bracket if you're down. Class dismissed. See you on Thursday with my Final 4 picks.

When The Madness Started (1995 and UCLA)

March Madness (15 Years Ago)

So with March Madness upon us, it’s been 15 years since the first NCAA Tournament that I watched and got involved in. The 1995 UCLA Bruins grabbed my attention and for the school that I started to get interested in attending, they gave me a heck of a tournament.

I still remember the team back when I could rattle off every player by heart. The O’Bannon Brothers, George Zidek in the middle, Tyus Edney running the point and freshman phenoms Toby Bailey and J.R. Henderson filling in that 5^th and 6^th man spot.

The buzzerbeater against Missouri is one of the greatest in NCAA history. Edney ran up the court in 4.8 seconds and hit the game winner to make everyone go nuts. And I missed it live. Yep.

I was scared UCLA was gonna lose so I ran into my bathroom like a punk. 10 year old me cowering and then I come out to see my Mom and sister in disbelief like “UCLA won!” I couldn’t believe I missed one of the greatest shots ever because I was scared. Lesson learned and I would never skip out on a game again.

But I followed that Bruins team closely the rest of the way. I remember watching the Final Four game against Oklahoma State and Bryant “Big Country” Reeves at Disneyland during a family trip. My cousin had a portable TV and I’d steal glances after every ride.

I was happy as heck when they beat Arkansas to win it all. Ed O’Bannon had a monster game and Cameron Dollar coming off the bench for an injured Edney sparked hope in his future as a Bruin – ironically, two years later he’d have an similar moment to Edney in the Sweet 16.

I remember for class we decorated Easter Eggs and I named them all in honor of the Starting Five – Egg O’Bannon, Tyus Eggney for example. Course it hurt like heck when I watched Princeton beat them the next year on a back-door layup.

But that sparked my love for UCLA and March Madness. And here we are. Loving every moment of the pre-tourney hype and get ready for Thursday. 15 years and counting.